000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032209 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 103W N of 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 45 nm either side of a line from 15N101W to 15N104W, and within 30 nm of a line from 15N99W to 15N104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 17N101W and also of 17N103W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis from NW Colombia to across northern Costa Rica to 09N90W to 12N97W to low pressure at 12N102W 1011 mb to 13N109W to 14N117W to low pressure near 16N127W 1013 mb to 14N136W. The ITCZ axis extends from 14N136W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 240 nm S of the axis between 83W and 87.5W, and also within 120 nm N of the axis between 90W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the axis between 87.5W and 90W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Lidia is analyzed off the coast of Baja California Norte at 30N117W with a pressure of 1008 mb. An AscatB pass from this 1814Z this afternoon depicted lingering strong SE to S winds within 90 nm of the low in its NE quadrant. Maximum seas are possibly up to 8 ft with these winds. The low will weaken as it continues to move northwestward tonight into Monday reaching near 32N120W with a pressure of 1012 mb by early Monday afternoon. At that time, the strong SE to S winds are forecast to diminish to the gentle to moderate range, with seas 8 ft lowering to around 5 ft. The eastern periphery of the ridging over the NW portion of the area will then protrude eastward over these waters in the wake of the low and persist through Tuesday. The associated gradient should support gentle to moderate NW winds, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft across these waters. Farther south, fresh overnight gap winds are possible through the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and then again late this week with seas building to near 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate to locally fresh offshore breeze is expected tonight, then shift to W of the Gulf from 10N to 12N between 88W and 92W by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through Tuesday, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with seas of 4 to 6 ft over the entire area. Later in the week beyond 48 hours, seas are forecast by wavewatch guidance to build to 5 to 7 ft over mainly the most western portions of the 250 nm range as long period S to SW swell propagates through those waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high analyzed at 25N132W extends a ridge to near 22N119W. The high will shift northwestward to near 27N136W by Monday afternoon, but the associated ridging will be relatively weak. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain generally light to gentle winds trades N of about 14N and W of 121W, except for light to gentle anticyclonic flow around the anticyclone and gentle to moderate NW to N winds to the NE of the ridge. Seas N of of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis are expected to be in the 4 to 6 ft range through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected to the S of the monsoon trough through Tuesday. Long period SE cross-equatorial swell producing combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will continue to propagate as far N to near 06N through Monday. The swell is then forecast to decay early on Tuesday allowing for seas to drop below 8 ft Tue. Later in the week beyond 48 hours, combined seas from SE swell and southerly winds to the S of the monsoon trough are forecast to build combined seas to 8 ft S of around 09N between 105W and 125W by Friday. $$ Aguirre