000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 230 UTC Sun Sep 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 1011 mb pressure near 13N101W to 17N100W and has been moving W at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. No significant convection is noted. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N101W to 11N108W where it breaks, then resumes from 15N120W to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N128W to beyond 12N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Lidia is centered near 29.1N 115.8W off the coast of Baja California Norte at 0000 UTC, and is moving NW, or 315 degrees at 9 kt. The estimated minimal central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt, with gusts to 40 kt. While no convection is associated with T.D. Lidia, winds to 30 kt are likely especially over the northern Gulf of California where seas are still as high as 11 ft. Lidia will weaken further as it moves north of the area through early Sun, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft across the region. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details, and for the Public Advisory please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC. A ridge will build E along 24N/25N tonight through early next week in the wake of Lidia. This will support gentle to moderate northwest breezes and slight seas across the region north of 20N into early next week. Moderate to fresh northerly flow is possible off Baja California Norte by Tue as the ridge is squeezed between a trough off southern California and lower pressure over the Colorado river delta. Farther south, fresh overnight gap winds are possible through the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight through early next week. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate to locally fresh offshore breeze expected tonight and Sun night. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through early next week, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds expected S of the monsoon trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging will build across roughly 24N/25N through early next week, maintaining light to gentle breezes and slight seas north of 15N. Farther south, the ridge will support moderate to occasionally fresh north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh SE winds south of 10N shifting SW into the monsoon trough from the south. Long period SE cross-equatorial swell with 6 to 8 ft combined seas will continue to move as far north as 05N through Sun, but decaying below 8 ft. $$ Christensen