000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022112 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2112 UTC Sat Sep 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 28.8N 115.0W, or 50 nm N of Punta Eugenia Mexico at 2100 UTC, and is moving NW, or 320 degrees at 10 kt. The estimated minimal central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt. These winds were verified over mainly the Gulf of California earlier today by a scatterometer pass at 16 UTC. Although the tropical storm force winds are persisting into the afternoon, Lidia continues to weaken, with only scattered moderate convection dissipating across the central Gulf of California and northern Baja California Sur. There is enough of a fetch of strong winds north of Tiburon Island to support seas of 8 to 13 ft in the northern Gulf, which will be subsiding to less than 8 ft overnight as Lidia weakens to a remnant low and winds diminish. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details, and for the Public Advisory please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 1012 mb pressure near 16N98W to 16N98W, and has been moving W at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is flaring between the monsoon trough and the Mexican coast between 93W and 100W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N to 1012 mb low pressure near 16N98W to 13N105W where it breaks, then resumes from 15N120W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate is noted within 150 nm north of the monsoon trough between 93W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection also noted from 10N to 13N between 110W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the special features paragraph for information on Tropical Storm Lidia. A ridge will build E along 23N tonight through early next week in the wake of Lidia. This will support gentle to moderate northwest breezes and slight seas across the region north of 20N into early next week. Moderate to fresh northerly flow is possible off Baja California Norte by Tue as the ridge is squeezed between a trough off southern California and lower pressure over the Colorado river delta. Farther south, fresh overnight gap winds are possible through the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight through early next week. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate to locally fresh offshore breeze expected tonight and on Sun night. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through early next week, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds expected S of the monsoon trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging will build across roughly 24N/25N through early next week, maintaining light to gentle breezes and slight seas north of 15N. Farther south, the ridge will support moderate to occasionally fresh north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh SE winds south of 10N shifting SW into the monsoon trough from the south. Long period SE cross-equatorial swell with 6 to 8 ft combined seas will continue to move as far north as 05N through Sun, but decaying below 8 ft. $$ Christensen