000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 23.8N 111.0W at 2 am PDT NW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows convective bands wrapping around Lidia, over the southern Baja peninsula and surrounding waters of the Gulf of California and the Pacific Ocean. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm east and 90 nm west of the center. This convection is resulting in very heavy rainfall creating the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Very large seas and swells will continue to impact Baja California, NW Mexico, and spreading northward into the Gulf of California. Lidia will move roughly parallel to the Baja peninsula and gradually weaken through Sun, then become a remnant low north of 29N. Hazardous marine conditions will continue to impact NW Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and the Gulf of California this weekend. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details, and for the Public Advisory please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 98W N of 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is E of the wave offshore the Mexican coast north of 13N between 94W and 87W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N109W, then resumes from 17N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 115W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Lidia moving near the southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, a weak ridge axis extends W of 120W supporting gentle to moderate NW flow in the open waters W of the Baja California outside of the influence of Lidia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in mixed cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure area is analyzed near 13N132W. The pressure gradient between it and higher pressure to the N will maintain moderate NE trades in NW waters this weekend. North swell over the far northern portion of the area N of 30N between 120W and 125W is producing occasional seas to 8 ft. This swell will subside to less than 8 ft today. Cross-equatorial southerly swell near the equator will persist through the weekend with 7-9 ft seas expected. Another area of southerly swell to 8 ft lingers just S of the monsoon trough thanks to moderate to fresh flow. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft this weekend. Otherwise, weak ridging dominating the waters W of 120W will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft through the next several days. $$ Mundell