000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300255 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is centered near 17.5N 107.7W at 30/0000 UTC or about 205 nm west-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. This system remains embedded in the monsoon trough, but is acquiring more banding features with time. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing numerous strong from 19N-22N E of 107W to inland the coast of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N-20N between 108W-111W, and within 60 nm of 19N107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N-21N between 105W-112W. The low pressure system, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E, is forecast to reach near 18.8N 108.6W early Wednesday, then intensify to a tropical storm near 19.7N 109.2W early on Wednesday evening with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt gusts to 45 kt, reach near 21.0N 109.8W early on Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and continue to gradually intensify as it reaches near 22.1N 110.4W early Thursday evening with maximum sustained winds of 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and to near 24.1N 112.2W with maximum sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt by early Friday evening. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will move in a general west to west- northwest track and slowly weaken through Sunday. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC and the full Forecast Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The previously mentioned tropical waves have become absorbed by the large monsoonal gyre associated over the eastern portion of the area where Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is located. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 18N104W to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E to 13N120W to low pressure near 12.5N127W 1011 mb to low pressure near 12.5N132W 1010 mb to 10N140W. The majority of the convection along and near the trough axis is associated with the broad cyclonic gyre that encompasses Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E as described above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W-105W, and south of the trough axis within 60 nm of line 12N113W to 12N116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section for developing low pressure SW of Mexico near 16.5N105W. Otherwise, a ridge axis extends toward the northern offshore waters just W of 120W supporting gentle to moderate NW flow across the open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds in the Gulf of California are light and variable with seas 2 ft or less, except 5 to 6 ft near the entrance. Conditions at the entrance to the Gulf of California, and over the southern portion of the Gulf will drastically begin to worsen change beginning on Wednesday at which time winds will become E to SE in the fresh to strong range just south of the entrance to the Gulf of California. Winds will gradually continue to increase from the SE to S in direction to the strong to tropical storm force range along with seas building to 10-15 ft over those same waters on Thursday and through Friday night, with large SE swell possibly reaching as far N as 27N in the Gulf of California on Saturday. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light offshore nocturnal flow is expected this week into the upcoming weekend, with light to gentle onshore flow during the day. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle offshore nocturnal flow is expected through the remainder of this week, and into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through the week and into the upcoming weekend, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis. Long period southerly cross-equatorial swell, in the form of 5 to 7 ft seas will gradually subside through Thursday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging dominating the waters W of 120W will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas through the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the exception of the waters south of 04N between 120W-125W where long-period SW will send seas to 8 ft over those waters beginning early on Thursday, and reach possibly as far north as 10N by late Friday. $$ Aguirre