000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292222 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 29 2017 corrected AWIPS/WMO Intermediate Public Advisory header under Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is centered near 17.2N 107.2W at 29/2100 UTC or about 200 nm west-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. This system remains embedded in the monsoon trough, but is acquiring more banding features with time. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N108W to 18N109W to 19.5N107W. Similar activity is occurring within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N108W to 18N109W to 19.5N107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 15N-21N between 100W-110W. The low pressure system, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E, is forecast to reach near 18.1N 108.0W late tonight, then intensify to a tropical storm near 19.3N 108.9W early on Wednesday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt gusts to 45 kt, reach near 20.4N 109.8W late Wednesday night with maximum sustained winds of 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and continue to gradually intensify as it reaches near 21.4N 110.4W early Thursday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and to near 23.5N 112.0W with maximum sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt by early Friday afternoon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will move in a general west to west-northwest track and slowly weakening through Sunday. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC and the full Forecast Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 10N along 112W/113W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection as described above with Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E. A tropical wave is analyzed from 10N to 18N along 121W moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N-12N. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 17N103W to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E to 14N115W to 12N123W to 11N134W to 10N140W. The majority of the convection along and near the trough axis is associated with the broad cyclonic circulation that encompasses Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E as described above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N-17N between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the axis between 110W-120W, and within 60 nm of the axis between 129W-131W and between 133W-136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section for developing low pressure SW of Mexico near 16.5N105W. Otherwise, a ridge axis extends toward the northern offshore waters just W of 120W supporting gentle to moderate NW flow across the open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds in the Gulf of California are light and variable with seas 2 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light offshore nocturnal flow is expected this week into the upcoming weekend, with light to gentle onshore flow during the day. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle offshore nocturnal flow is expected through the remainder of this week, and into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through the week and into the upcoming weekend, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis. Long period southerly cross-equatorial swell, in the form of 5 to 7 ft seas will gradually subside through Thursday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging dominating the waters W of 120W will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas through the week and into the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten offshore of central California later in the week which may build and send down fresh 8 ft seas into the area N of 25N between 125W and 135W. $$ Aguirre