000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271617 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is to the S of 20N along 97W-99W moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 17.5n between 98W and 108W, while widely scattered moderate convection also extends NE across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and across the W Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave is S of 20N along 113W-114W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 11N to 14N between 98W and 116W. This tropical wave is likely to become less defined during the next couple of days as it gradually become absorbed in a broad low level cyclonic circulation developing from this area to SW Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 08N81W to 15N95W to 17N110W to low pressure near 12N116W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 10N and E of 85W, including the Gulf of Panama, and from 06.5N to 10.5N between 86W and 91W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented ridge extends across EPAC waters well beyond 250 nm. The resultant pressure gradient will support a moderate to locally fresh NW breeze across the open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through early Mon, diminishing to gentle to moderate through the early part of the week. Expect 3 to 6 ft seas across this area. A weak cold front will move SE across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California on Mon afternoon, stalling and dissipating along 28N late Mon night through midday on Tue. Expect only a light SW-W-NW wind shift with the front. A NW to SE oriented low level trough will meander from E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California through the next couple of days, with a surface low developing intermittently along the central portion of the trough. Light to gentle southerly flow in the Gulf of California will become light and variable tonight, with little change then expected through early Wed. Fresh to locally strong southwesterly monsoon flow and long period cross-equatorial S swell, producing combined seas of 7 to 10 ft, prevails across the waters S of 16N W of 100W this morning and will shift slightly N and E this afternoon through Mon. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop 16N106W late Mon through Tue and gradually shift N to NNW through the res of the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for organization of this low, and all the global models indicate significant development of this low as it generally moves NNW towards Cabo San Lucas and the Baja Peninsula through Thu. Look for fresh to strong winds to prevail across the near and offshore areas E through SE of this low as it shifts NNW Tue through Thu, spreading 8-10 ft seas across the E semicircle with it. Very active weather will also accompany this feature. Due to these expected conditions, this low has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone between Tue and Thu. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light northerly nocturnal drainage winds are forecast this week, with light to gentle onshore flow during the day. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast tonight into early Mon. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through the middle of the week, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. Long period cross-equatorial S swell is producing seas of 7 to 9 ft moving across the equator to near 06N. This swell will continue to propagate to the N, and peak on Mon night, then gradually subsiding through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of post-tropical cyclone Kenneth continues to spin near 29N135.5W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1017 mb. A nearby buoy reported moderate SE winds and seas of 6 ft to the NE of the low early this morning, with moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft likely on the NW side. The low is forecast to dissipate into a remnant trough between 24 and 48 hours. A ridge axis extends from 32N132W through 23N116W. Mainly moderate trades prevail N of the monsoon trough W of 120W, except locally fresh across the W central waters, which supports seas to 8 ft. These fresh winds will diminish tonight into early Mon allowing for seas to subside. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are occurring S of the monsoon trough between 98W and 123W. These conditions will shift N today as surface low previously described above develops along the monsoon trough. $$ Stripling