000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning associated with the remnant low of Kenneth: The remnant low of Kenneth was analyzed near 28.5N135.5W at 1009 mb, moving NNE near 5 kt. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure ridging to the N and NE continues to support gale force winds in the NW semicircle, where recent altimeter data suggests seas remain near 10 to 14 ft. As the low moves slowly N and over cooler waters, gale conditions are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong during the next 18-24 hours. Winds will then diminish to 20 kt or less by 48 hours as the low meanders along 30N. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 06N along about 90W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection accompanies the tropical wave from 06N to 13.5N between 85W to 100W. Model guidance suggests that a surface low may develop along this tropical wave during the next few days as it moves westward. A tropical wave is analyzed to the S of 15N along 103W/104W moving W at near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across N portions of the wave as it has interacted with nocturnal convection from W Mexico shifting westward off the coast this morning. This wave is weak and forecast to become less defined during the next day or so. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 10N96W to 13.5N104W...where it breaks...then resumes from 15N107W to low pres near 11N139W 1010 MB to 11N140W.. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 111W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented low level trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend, with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the trough over the central portion of the Gulf of California. A NW to SE oriented ridge extends across the Pacific waters just beyond 250 nm. The pressure gradient will support a moderate NW breeze across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through Sun, except becoming a fresh NW breeze during the evenings within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast. Expect mainly 3 to 6 ft seas through the weekend. A weak cold front will move SE across the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California on Mon night. Otherwise in the Gulf of California, light to gentle southerly flow will persist, except a brief moderate southerly breeze will develop intermittently just S of the developing low pres over the Gulf waters, roughly along 30N. A moderate NW breeze will follow the cold front on Mon night, which should stall along 28.5N on Mon evening. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle N drainage winds are forecast through the weekend at night, with gentle onshore flow during the day. Strong southwesterly monsoon flow and long period cross- equatorial swell, in the form 7 to 10 ft seas, will develop across the waters W of 98W at about 250 nm seaward on Sun, spreading toward coastal locations thereafter. By then a surface low may have developed along a tropical wave. The low will move NW on Mon and Tue before conditions become favorable for improved organization of the low mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate nocturnal drainage is forecast to begin on Sun night. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 7 ft seas by early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as discussed in the special features paragraph, the subtropical ridge extends from 33N131W to near 16N116W, and is yielding moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough today, increasing to a strong breeze from roughly 06N to 11N between 98W and 118W on Sat, and expanding out from 05N to 12N between 97W and 120W on Sat night, with seas building 7 to 10 ft in fresh southerly swell. $$ Stripling