000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1438 UTC Thu Aug 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth, centered near 27N136W, remains a well organized gale-force tropical low without deep convection. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Satellite-derived wind data showed 30 to 35 kt winds in all quadrants of the low except the S quadrant. Gale force winds are expected to persist primarily within 60 nm N of the low center during the next 36-42 hours, then decrease as the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the weakening low relaxes. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N82W to 21N82W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of a line from 03N79W to 10N90W. A tropical wave extends from 05N100W to 17N100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 05N to 16N between 91W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough reaches from 08N75W to 09N96W to 13N115W to 11N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 105W and 129W and from 07N to 12N W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the Gulf of California will linger in the area through the end of the week. A weak surface low will periodically develop within the trough mainly north of 29N. Locally fresh winds will pulse off the coast of Baja California Sur from 24N to 27N during this time frame. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging W of the area will generate moderate NW winds off Baja California through Friday evening. Winds will decrease to a gentle breeze through Monday night. Seas will remain between 2 and 4 ft during this period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters south of 15N Saturday through Tuesday. Fresh to strong SW winds will accompany the swell starting Sunday evening through Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through the weekend while moderate to fresh SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross equatorial long period S to SW swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area beginning on Friday, then persist until early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and the remnants of Kenneth is producing fresh NE winds and a broad area of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 23N and W of 131W. This area of winds and seas will shift north to northwest in tandem with the remnant low and eventually pass to the N of 30N by Sun morning. Moderate to locally fresh NE flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 130W, from 10N to 20N between 120W and 130W and moderate NW flow east of 120W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight intensification of the winds south of the monsoon trough east of 130W. This should cause seas to build to between 7 and 9 ft from 05N to 15N east of 130W from Sat until around the middle of next week. $$ CAM