000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1540 UTC Wed Aug 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 24.6N 135.1W at 1500 UTC, moving NNW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convection has nearly dissipated as Kenneth has moved over cooler waters, with some scattered moderate convection lingering within 120 nm of the northern semicircle. Kenneth will continue to weaken, likely becoming a tropical depression by tonight and remnant low Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 95W from 03N to 15N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 06N to 13N between 94W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 12N100W to 11N120W to 08N130W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 08N130W to 07N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 04N to 08N, east of 90W, and within 150 NM of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis, west of 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough north of 29N. Fresh winds will pulse off the coast of Baja California Sur from 24N to 27N during this time frame. Elsewhere the pressure gradient between this trough and surface ridging W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California through Friday evening, then decreasing to a gentle breeze through Monday night. Seas will remain between 3 and 5 ft during this period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters south of 15N Saturday through Tuesday. Fresh to strong SW winds will accompany the swell starting Sunday evening through Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through Sunday while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area beginning on Saturday, persisting through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and Tropical Storm Kenneth is producing fresh northwest winds and a broad area of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 17N and W of 130W, far removed from the tropical cyclone. These winds and seas will shift north to northwest with what is left of Kenneth through Saturday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE to NE flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, and moderate NW flow east of 120W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight intensification of the southerly flow south of the monsoon trough east of 120W. This should build seas to 7 to 9 ft from about 05N to 15N, east of 120W Saturday through Tuesday. $$ Latto