000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 21.8N 133.6W at 2100 UTC, moving NNW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the storm center. Kenneth will continue to weaken during the next 48 hours, likely becoming a tropical depression by late Wednesday and a remnant low by Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres near 09N90W to 12N100W to 10N120W to 07N133W. The monsoon trough then resumes near 15N133W to beyond 11N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 94W and 104W and from 06N to 13N between 108W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough north of 29N. The pressure gradient between this elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California through Friday evening, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas will remain between 3 and 5 ft during this period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south of the monsoon trough may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters south of 15N Saturday into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area beginning on Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure west of northern Baja California near 31N125W will weaken to a trough this evening, then persist over the waters W of northern Baja into Wed. High pressure centered near 35N143W will tighten the pressure gradient over NW waters as weakening tropical cyclone Kenneth moves northward, and help increase seas over a large portion of the area N of 25N and W of 135W through Thursday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight intensification of the southerly flow south of the monsoon trough east of 120W. This may build seas to 7 to 8 ft from about 05N to 15N, east of 120W Saturday through early next week. $$ Ramos