000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The center of Hurricane Kenneth at 21/2100 UTC is near 18.3N 131.6W, moving NW or 305 degrees 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Numerous strong convection is within 45 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere from 17N to 20N between 129W and 132W. Kenneth is forecast to weaken steadily and become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W from 18N southward to 10N, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 145 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low near 10N89W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 10N113W to 07N124W, resuming near 14N132W beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 170 nm S of axis between 88W and 127W, within 200 nm N of axis between 95W and 103W and between 117W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 129W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough will prevail along the eastern side of the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough to the north of 29N. The pressure gradient between this elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging W of the area will allow for moderate NW winds off Baja California through early Friday, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas will range between 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through early Wed with seas to 7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 37N138W. A ridge extends to the southeast, through 22N118W. N swell generated by strong northerly winds N of the area is building seas of 8-9 ft north of 29N between 127W and 132W through early Tuesday, then conditions will merge with Hurricane Kenneth. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. $$ NR