000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The center of Hurricane Kenneth at 21/1500 UTC is near 17.9N 130.9W, moving WNW or 300 degrees 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm of center in N and S quadrants, and within 90 nm of center in E quadrant. Kenneth is forecast to weaken, and become a tropical storm in 48 hours. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W/94W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation is near the monsoon trough, within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between 93W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through 10N86W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 10N97W, to 10N112W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 08N118W, to 08N125W. The monsoon trough starts again near 13N133W, and it continues beyond 12N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong: within 120 nm S of monsoon trough between 85W and 92W, within 75 nm N of monsoon trough between 88W and 90W, within 300 nm N of monsoon trough between 93W and 100W, within 60 nm on either side of monsoon trough between 99W and 101W, within 60 nm S of monsoon trough between 115W and 117W, within 90 nm S of monsoon trough between 118W and 125W, within 120 nm N of monsoon trough between 120W and 125W, and from 12N to 14N between 129W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along the eastern side of the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California at the present time. This trough will remain in the area through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough to the north of 29N. A surface ridge, extending across the western waters, will weaken later today. A current 1014 mb low pressure center, that is near 33N125W, will drift southward. Moderate NW winds will prevail through the end of the week in the area that is to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue for another 6 hour or so, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh N drainage winds are forecast each night through early Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through Thursday, while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 39N139W. A ridge extends to the southeast, through 30N133W, 26N124W, to near 16N113W. N swell generated by strong northerly winds, that are to the west of the 33N125W low pressure center that is drifting southward off the California coast, will build seas to 8-9 ft north of 28N between 125W and 136W on Tuesday morning. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. $$ mt