000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Kenneth is near 17.4N 130.0W at 0900 UTC, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 100 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 127W and 132W. Kenneth is a major hurricane near peak intensity. It is expected weaken only slightly during the next 24 hours, then weaken more rapidly afterwards as it moves over cooler water and encounters greater vertical shear. Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 10N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm west and 30 nm east of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N84W to 10N111W to 07N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 119W and 122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough axis north of 29N. A surface ridge extending across the western waters will weaken later today as a low currently near 35N123W drifts south, with a trough expected to develop along 125W by tonight. Moderate NW winds will prevail through the end of the week west of the Baja California Peninsula, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue this morning, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh N drainage winds are forecast each night through early Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough through Tue, while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered near 38N139W extends a ridge southeast to near 23N120W. N swell generated by strong northerly winds west of a low drifting south off the California coast will build seas to 8-9 ft north of 28N between 125W-136W Tue morning. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. $$ Mundell