000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210251 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2346 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Kenneth is near 16.8N 129.1W at 21/0300 UTC, moving W-NW, or 285 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm northeast and 60 nm southwest semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 126W and 130W. Kenneth is forecast to remain a hurricane the next couple of days before weakening over cooler waters. Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 10N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm east of the tropical wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N90W to 09N98W to 10N105W to 09N113W to 07N118W to 08N120W. It resumes from 13N131W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 111W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 116W and 120W. Scattered moderate is noted within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this week with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to SE orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout. Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to remain near 25 kt through Monday morning, with seas to 8 ft before decreasing. Afterwards, fresh N drainage winds are forecast on Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 ft by Tue morning before subsiding. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through this week. Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 39N138W extends a ridge southeast to near 23N115W. Outside the influence of Kenneth, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. N swell with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range will propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, then merge with southerly swell generated by Kenneth over the waters N of 26N and W of 130W on Tuesday. $$ AL