000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1846 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Kenneth is near 16.2N 128.4W at 20/2100 UTC, moving W, or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 125W and 130W. Kenneth is forecast to remain a hurricane the next couple of days before moving over cooler waters. Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W north of 09N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 88W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N91W to 09N98W to 10N104W to 09N110W to 09N113W to 07N120W. It resumes from 13N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 90W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this week with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to SE orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout. Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: latest scatterometer pass indicates strong northerly winds funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to remain near 25 kt through Monday morning, with seas to 8 ft before decreasing. Afterwards, fresh N drainage winds are forecast on Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 ft by Tue morning before subsiding. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through this week. Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 39N138W extends a ridge southeast to near 23N115W. Outside the influence of Kenneth, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. N swell with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range will propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, then merge with southerly swell generated by Kenneth over the waters N of 26N and W of 130W on Tuesday. $$ AL