000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Warning...Hurricane Kenneth is at 16.3N 127.4W at 1500 UTC, moving W, or 280 degrees at 13 kt, with a minimum central pressure of 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 75 nm of center surrounded by scattered moderate to strong convection elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line from 18N128W to 12.5N127W. Kenneth is expected to remain a hurricane for a couple of days before moving over cooler waters. Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information. ..TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 86W moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along 09N within 150 nm of the wave, but strong convection is observed futher W between 90W and 93W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N to 15N along 108W, and has been progressing W at about 12 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along 10N within 120 nm W of the wave. This wave is becoming difficult to locate and may soon be dropped from the surface analysis. A 1010 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough at 08N116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm E of the low center. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W along 10N from the far SW Caribbean to the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 11N92W, then turns gently WSW through the embedded surface low previously described at 08N116W TO 08N119W where it loses identity. The monsoon trough resumes SW of Hurricane Kenneth near 14N130W to beyond 11.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of a line from 07N77W to 08N88W to 13N92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 07N90W to 09N98W to 09N110W, and within 90 nm of 09.5N125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this week with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to SE orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout. Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight and again on Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf waters near 15N95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through this week. Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge extends from 32N133W to near 17N115W. Except as previously mentioned in the above paragraphs, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. N swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas is currently observed along 32N between 125W and 132W will propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, and reach across the waters of 24N W of 128W on Mon night with seas associated with tropical cyclone Kenneth moving into the area later in the week. $$ Nelson