000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190930
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 15.6N 120.2W at 0900 
UTC, moving WNW at 13 kt. Minimum central pressure is estimated 
at 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is primarily 
within 120 nm SW of the center. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 13N between 
121W and 125W. The system is expected to move WNW then NW and 
intensify during the next 2-3 days. Refer to National Hurricane 
Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 
KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS 
headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information.
 
..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W north of 08N, moving W 
at 15-20 kt. Minimal convection is associated with the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 10N to 20N, moving 
W at 15 kt. Minimal convection is also associated with this wave.
    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N114W...then resumes 
from 13N123W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is near the coast of Central America from 06N to 08N between 81W 
and 85W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will prevail over Baja California and Gulf of 
California through Mon night. A ridge will continue west of the 
Baja California, supporting moderate NW winds this weekend west 
of the peninsula. The pres gradient will tighten each evening, 
with fresh NW flow expected within 90 nm of the Baja coast and 3 
to 6 ft seas.
  
Gulf of California...light to gentle southerly flow will persist 
across the Gulf of California this weekend, except a moderate to 
locally fresh breeze will prevail over the waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly drainage winds are expected 
during the overnight hours the next few days with seas building 
to 6-7 ft. 
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected 
through the weekend.
    
Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N 
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridge extends across the northern waters. Outside 
the influence of TS Kenneth, moderate locally fresh anticyclonic 
flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. 

$$
Mundell