000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160230 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 12N99W to 17N98W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 96W and 100W. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitud northward bulge of moisture is noted on the TPW product. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity over parts of western Oaxaca and Guerrero. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across parts of Panama and Costa Rica to 10N90W to 12N99W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 11N106W to 13N102W to 12N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 93W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 08N to 10N between 100W and 110W, and within 120 nm S of monsoon trough between 112W and 116W of 132W, and west of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range the remainder of the work week. A surface trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through Sat night, with a surface low developing intermittently over the northern Gulf of California. Gulf of California...gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds that will surround the low pressure center over the waters N of 30N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh to strong northerly winds are expected, with the assistance of the drainage flow, during the overnight and early morning hours Thursday through Sunday. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft with these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh offshore winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through Friday morning with gentle to moderate winds thereafter. Gentle NE to E winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis through the upcoming weekend with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is located near 15.5N113W or several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Convection, in association with this system, has diminished during the last few hours and now scattered moderate convection is noted west of the low center from 15N to 16N between 113W and 114W. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward for the next several days. Marine guidance suggests fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 7-8 ft over the NE quadrant of the low during the next 24-48 hours. The remnants of former tropical cyclone Jova are analyzed at 20N128.5W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is associated with this low. The pressure gradient between the low and a ridge to the north supports fresh to strong winds within 150 nm over the NW quadrant of the low. This system is forecast to move toward the SW while open up into a trough by late Wednesday, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by then. The subtropical ridge dominates the north waters producing mainly gentle to moderate winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds to the NW of the remnant low of Jova. An area of seas to 8 ft in southerly swell covers the waters from 06N to 09N between 96W and 103W. These seas will propagate westward, and subside to less than 8 ft by Wednesday night. $$ GR