000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 11N98W to 16N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 95W and 100W. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitud northward bulge of moisture is noted on the TPW product. The wave is helping to induce some convective acitivity over parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N98W to a second low pressure of 1010 mb near 11N106.5W to 13N120W to 12N130W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found N of 05N between 80W and 86W, from 06N to 09N between 90W and 97W, from 08N to 10N between 100W and 104W, and within 90 nm S of monsoon trough W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range the remainder of the work week. Gulf of California...gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds that will surround a low pressure center over the waters N of 30N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected, with the assistance of the drainage flow, during the overnight and early morning hours Thursday through Sunday. Seas are forecast to build to 7-8 ft with these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh offshore winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through Friday morning with gentle to moderate winds thereafter. Gentle NE to E winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis through the upcoming weekend with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A westward-moving trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed on the 1800 UTC surface map near 11N106.5W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection within about 120 nm NW quadrant of low center. Similar convection is also noted from 12N to 17N between 103W and 108W. Environmental conditions are not forecast to support significant development of this system during the next several days. A broad area of low pressure is located near 15N113W or about several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 75 nm SE quadrant of low center. Scattered moderate convection is also seen on the west side of the low from 14N to 17N between 113W and 117W. Due to the broad nature of the disturbance, development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward for the next few days. Marine guidance suggests fresh to strong winds within about 180 nm NE quadrant of low center in 24-48 hours. The remnants of former tropical cyclone Jova are analyzed at 20N128W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is associated with this low. The pressure gradient between the low and a ridge to the north supports fresh to strong winds within 150 nm over the NW quadrant of the low. This system is forecast to be near 19N131W on Wed, then will weaken to an open trough late Wed with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by then. The subtropical ridge dominates the north waters producing mainly gentle to moderate winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds to the NW of the remnant low of Jova. An area of seas to 8 ft in southerly swell covers the waters from 05N to 08N between 94W and 105W. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft early on Wed. $$ GR