000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150241
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0235 UTC Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends N of 06N along 95W to the Gulf of
Tehuantepec moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong from 06N to 20N between 92W and 95W.

A tropical wave extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 11N104W to
19N108W moving WNW at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is within 240 nm in the N quadrant of
the low. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a 
general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development 
of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through the week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N90W to low
pressure near 11N104W to 14N116W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 05N to 09N between 
100W and 105W, and also within 120 nm SW of a line from 15N110W 
to 20N114W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of a
line from 16N114W to 13N124W, and also from 10N to 12N between 
132W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the 
northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid week, 
increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the week as the 
pressure gradient tightens slightly.

Long period southerly swell propagating toward the coast of 
southern Mexico has peaked, and will begin to decay tonight.

Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours 
Thursday night through Saturday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Papagayo through the week.

Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N 
of the trough through the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Long period southerly swell and 6 to 9 ft seas will continue 
across the region tonight, but will decay to less than 8 ft 
Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova is centered near 20N124W at 1007 mb 
moving SW at 10 to 15 kt. The remnant low remains void of any 
convection. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong 
winds on the NW side of the low up against a ridge of high 
pressure, with a surrounding area of 8 ft seas in mixed swell. 
The low is forecast to continue to weaken and gradually dissipate
through the week.

Otherwise, the ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon 
trough, and will weaken in response to the movement of the
remnant low of Jova. The weakened ridge will allow moderate 
trade winds N of the monsoon trough through mid week. Persistent
moderate to fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough along with
sporadic and local areas of fresh to strong winds have helped to
create areas of 8 ft seas immediately to the S of the monsoon
trough. These conditions will diminish and subside by Wednesday 
evening.

Otherwise, an area of low pressure embedded in the monsoon 
trough near 104W will move WNW and drag the monsoon trough 
northward as it gradually develops. Expect rounds of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough through mid 
week. Seas will be 5 to 6 ft N of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 9 
ft S of the monsoon trough through mid week.

$$
Lewitsky