000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2113 UTC Mon Aug 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N of 10N along 93W to across eastern Mexico near the Guatemala border, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 91W and 94W, and also from 11N to 13N between 91W and 94W. A tropical wave extends from 1009 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 11.5N103W to 20N107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 100W and 105W, and also within 210 nm in the NW quadrant of the low. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through the week. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 10N93W to low pressure near 11.5N103W to 14N118W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 150 nm SE of a line from 18N110W to 14N121W, and also within 90 nm S of the axis between 129W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid week, increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Long period southerly swell propagating toward the coast of southern Mexico has peaked, and will begin to decay tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours Thursday night through Saturday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of the trough through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Long period southerly swell and 6 to 9 ft seas will continue across the region tonight, but will decay to less than 8 ft Tuesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Jova is centered near 20N122W at 10007 mb moving SW around 15 kt. The remnant low remains void of any convection. Recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds on the NW side of the low up against a ridge of high pressure, with a surrounding area of 8 ft seas in mixed swell. The low is forecast to continue to weaken and gradually dissipate through the week. Otherwise, the ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, and will weaken in response to the movement of the remnant low of Jova. The weakened ridge will allow moderate trade winds N of the monsoon trough through mid week. Persistent moderate to fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough along with sporadic and local areas of fresh to strong winds have helped to create areas of 8 ft seas immediately to the S of the monsoon trough. These conditions will diminish and subside by Wednesday evening. Otherwise, an area of low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 103W will move WNW and drag the monsoon trough northward as it gradually develops. Expect rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough through mid week. Seas will be 5 to 6 ft N of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 9 ft S of the monsoon trough through mid week. $$ Lewitsky