000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140232 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0225 UTC Mon Aug 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-tropical Cyclone Jova is centered near 20.5N 119.7W at 14/0300 UTC or 565 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. No deep convection is present. Jova is forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate by Thursday evening. See final NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N88W to the N across Central America to the far NW Caribbean Sea moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 11N E of 89W. Weak low pressure may form along the southern portion of the wave early this week before dissipating. A tropical wave extends N of 07N along 103W through 1011 mb low pressure at 12.5N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm in the NW quadrant of the low. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N74W to 10N88W to 08N94W to low pressure near 12N103W to 16N112W to 13N126W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 90W and 93W, from 12N to 14N between 93W and 95W, within 240 nm S of the axis between 106W and 123W, and within 300 nm S of the axis W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Post-tropical Cyclone Jova. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid week, increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of southern Mexico until Monday with seas building to 7 to 9 ft in the offshore waters E of 100W. The swell will decay thereafter. Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours Thursday night through Saturday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong thereafter. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of the trough through mid week. Long period southerly swell with 6 to 9 ft seas will persist across the region through Monday, except 8 to 11 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. The swell will decay to below 8 ft by Tuesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough will weaken through mid week as the remnant low of Jova continues to the WSW, before dissipating Thursday. The weakened ridge will allow moderate trade winds N of the monsoon trough through mid week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will persist S of the monsoon trough. In addition to the remnant low of Jova, other weak areas of low pressure will continue along the monsoon trough. One is associated with the tropical wave near 103W. This low will move WNW reaching, dragging the monsoon trough northward as it gradually develops. Expect pulses of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough through mid week. Seas will be 5 to 6 ft N of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 9 ft S of the monsoon trough through mid week. $$ Lewitsky