000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132040 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Sun Aug 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Jova is centered near 20.4N 118.5W at 13/2100 UTC or 504 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Jova is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone/remnant low by late tonight, eventually dissipating by Thursday afternoon. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W N to the NW Caribbean Sea moving W at 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis. Weak low pressure may form along the southern portion of the wave early this week before dissipating. A tropical wave extends N of 07N102W to low pressure near 12.5N102W to the coast of Mexico near 18N102W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center of the low. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 11N86W to 08N94W to 11N101W, then resumes from 14N107W to 12N125W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 NM SW of the axis between 94W and 100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 240 nm S of the axis between 107W and 122W, and also from 07N to 14N W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Jova. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid week, increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of southern Mexico until Monday with seas building to 7 to 9 ft in the offshore waters E of 100W. The swell will decay thereafter. Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours Thursday night through Saturday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong thereafter. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of the trough through mid week. Long period southerly swell with 6 to 9 ft seas will persist across the region through Monday, except 8 to 11 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. The swell will decay to below 8 ft by Tuesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough will weaken through mid week as the remnant low of Jova continues to the WSW, before dissipating Thursday. The weakened ridge will allow moderate trade winds N of the monsoon trough through mid week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will persist S of the monsoon trough. In addition to the remnant low of Jova, other weak areas of low pressure will continue along the monsoon trough. One is associated with the tropical wave near 102W. This low will move NW reaching 14N111W by Monday night, dragging the monsoon trough northward as it gradually develops. Expect pulses of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough through mid week. Seas will be 5 to 6 ft N of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 9 ft S of the monsoon trough through mid week. $$ Lewitsky