000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1549 UTC Sun Aug 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Jova is centered near 20.4N 117.3W at 13/1500 UTC or 375 nm WNW of Socorro Island, moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm in the SW quadrant of Jova. Jova is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone/remnant low by late today, eventually dissipating by Wednesday into Thursday morning. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N from 08N102W through low pressure 1012 mb near 13N102W to 17N101W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 100W and 105W. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 09N95W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N102W where it breaks. The monsoon trough continues from 15N120W to 12N130W to 12N140W. Scattered convection is observed within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate within 90 nm of the monsoon trough west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Jova. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid week. Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of southern Mexico until Monday with seas building to 7 to 9 ft in these offshore waters. The swell will decay thereafter. Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours Thursday night through Saturday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong thereafter. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of the trough through mid week. Long period southerly swell with 6 to 9 ft seas will persist across the region through Monday, then decay to below 8 ft through Mon night into Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough will weaken through mid week as the remnant low of Jova continues to the WSW, before dissipating Thu. The weakened ridge will allow moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough through mid week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough. In addition to the remnant low of Jova, two additional areas of low pressure will continue along the monsoon trough. One is associated with the tropical wave near 102W. This will move northwest reaching 14N111W by Monday night, dragging the monsoon trough northward as it gradually develops. Expect pulses of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough through mid week. Seas will be 5 to 6 ft north of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 7 ft south of the monsoon trough through mid week. $$ Christensen