000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 UTC Sun Aug 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Jova is centered near 20.4N 116.0W at 13/0900 UTC or 370 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the SW quadrant of Jova. Jova is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone/remnant low by dawn on Monday, eventually dissipating by Thursday morning. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N from 06N100W through low pressure 1011 mb near 11N100W to 19N100W. The wave has slowed down and is moving W at only around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 17N between 98W and 103W. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09N84W to 10N94W to low pressure 1011 mb near 11N100W to 12N103W, then resumes from 14N120W to 12N130W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 08N between 89W and 94W, N of 10N between 87W and 92W and within 120 nm either side of a line from 12N110W to 11N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Jova. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid-week. Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of southern Mexico until Monday with seas building to 7 to 9 ft in these offshore waters. The swell will decay thereafter. Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours Thursday night through Saturday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong thereafter. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of the trough through Wednesday. A robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast to bring seas of 7 to 10 ft along the Central American coast tonight through Monday, decaying thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Otherwise, a broad surface ridge that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough is generating gentle to moderate NE winds to the N of the trough. Model guidance indicates winds S of the monsoon trough and N of 05N will increase to fresh to locally strong by this evening and cause seas to build to between 7 and 9 ft. These conditions will generally persist between 110W and 130W through mid-week. Model solutions diverge by the end of the week concerning the possible development of several weak areas of low pressure along the monsoon trough. $$ CAM