000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130237
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0237 UTC Sun Aug 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Jova is centered near 20.6N 114.7W at 
13/0300 UTC or 235 nm WNW of Socorro Island, moving W at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm in the SW quadrant of Jova. Jova is 
forecast to gradually weaken through Sunday, become a post- 
tropical cyclone/remnant low Sunday night, eventually dissipating
by Wednesday evening. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is N of 08N along 103W moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 102W and
105W. An area of low pressure trailing behind may merge with the
wave as both continue on a general WNW track during the next few
days.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 10N90W to low
pressure near 11N100W, then resumes from 15N108W to 12N125W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 240 nm S of the axis between 80W and 91W, within 180 nm SE
of the axis between 108W and 131W, and also from 09N to 13N
between 136W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 09N between 96W and 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression Jova.

Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the
vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula 
through mid-week. 

Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of 
southern Mexico Sunday through Monday with seas building to 7 to
9 ft across these offshore waters. The swell will decay 
thereafter.

Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Thursday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong
thereafter.

Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N 
of it trough through Wednesday.

A robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast to bring 
seas of 7 to 10 ft along the Central American coast tonight 
through Monday, decaying thereafter.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure area is centered near 11N100W with 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 240 nm 
in the NW semicircle of the low. The low is forecast to drift W 
through the remainder of the weekend, possibly merging with the 
tropical wave ahead of it. Some slow development of this 
low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week.

Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters N of the 
monsoon trough supporting gentle to moderate NE winds N of it. 
Model guidance indicates winds S of the monsoon trough increasing
to fresh to locally strong by late Sunday which will help to 
build seas to 7 to 9 ft. These conditions will persist along 
central portions through mid-week.

Model disagreement and uncertainty arises by the end of the week
with the possible development of several weak areas of low 
pressure along the monsoon trough.

$$
Lewitsky