000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122038
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2038 UTC Sat Aug 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Jova is centered near 20.4N 113.1W at 
12/2100 UTC or 152 nm NW of Socorro Island, moving W at 12 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is within 120 nm in the SW quadrant. Jova is 
forecast to gradually weaken through Sunday, become a post- 
tropical cyclone/remnant low Sunday night, eventually dissipating
by Wednesday afternoon. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is N of 08N along 102W moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N to
16N between 100W and 104W. An area of low pressure trailing
behind may merge with the wave as both continue on a general WNW
track during the next few days.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 10N90W to low
pressure near 11N99W, then resumes from 16N109W to 12N124W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 240 nm S of the axis Between 79W and 86W, within 90 nm NE
of a line from 10N93W to 14N100W, within 120 to 240 nm SE of the
axis between 109W and 127W, within 120 nm N of the axis between
130W and 139W, and also from 08N to 11N between 136W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression Jova.

Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the
vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula 
through mid-week. 

Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of 
southern Mexico Sunday through Monday with seas building to 7 to
9 ft across these offshore waters. The swell will decay 
thereafter.

Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Thursday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong
thereafter.

Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N 
of it trough through Wednesday.

A robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast to bring 
seas of 7 to 10 ft along the Central American coast tonight 
through Monday, decaying thereafter.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
300 NM SE QUADRANT.

A 1012 mb low pressure centered near 11N99W is forecast to drift
W through the remainder of the weekend, possibly merging with 
the tropical wave ahead of it. Some slow development of this 
low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week.

Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters N of the 
monsoon trough supporting gentle to moderate NE winds N of it. 
Model guidance indicates winds S of the monsoon trough increasing
to fresh to strong by late Sunday which will help to build seas
to 7 to 10 ft. These conditions will persist along central
portions through mid-week.

Model disagreement and uncertainty arises by the end of the week
with the possible development of several weak areas of low 
pressure.

$$
Lewitsky