000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 20.1N 111.2W at 12/1500 UTC or 75 nm N of Socorro Island, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 21N to 24N E of 107W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N to 23N between 105W and 115W. Additional winds of 20 to 25 kt are occurring within 90 nm of the Mexico coast between 104W and 108W due to funneling between Jova and the higher terrain along the coast. Jova is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 48 h, and become a remnant low on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 08N along 101W moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 18N between 98W and 103W. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop along the wave as it continues to move toward the WNW during the next two days. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N87W to low pressure 1011 mb near 10N97W, then resumes from 14N113W to 12N126W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N between 80W AND 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 79W and 87W and from 09N to 14N W of 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Jova. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid next week. Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of southern Mexico Sunday night through Monday night with seas building to 8 ft. A tropical wave will move S of Guerrero and Jalisco, Mexico Tue through Thu supporting seas from 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several nights/mornings. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of it trough through Wednesday. A robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast to bring seas to 10 ft along the Central American coast tonight through Monday, decaying thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1012 mb low pressure centered near 10N97W is forecast to drift W during the weekend, possibly merging with the tropical wave ahead of it. Some slow development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough supporting gentle to moderate NE winds N of it. No major changes in this weather pattern are anticipated through early next week. $$ NR