000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 UTC Sat Aug 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 19.3N 110.4W at 12/0900 UTC or 215 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. Additional winds of 20 to 30 kt are occurring in the NE semicircle within 300 nm between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas due to funneling between Jova and the higher terrain along the coast. Jova is forecast to strengthen slightly today, then begin to weaken tonight as it moves over cooler waters, becoming a post-tropical cyclone/remnant low by Tuesday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 08N along 100W moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 08N to 15N between 98W and 103W. This tropical wave will continue to move toward the WNW but slow down during the next couple of days. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09N87W to low pressure 1011 mb near 12N98W to 14N101W, then resumes from 15N116W to 11N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N between 80W AND 93W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place within 90 nm either side of a line from 12N103W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on newly developed Tropical Storm Jova. Deep convection has developed over interior portions of central Mexico during the past few hours with scattered moderate to strong moving offshore from 21N to 23N between 105W and 108W. This convection is propagating westward over the waters between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Expect locally higher winds and seas and frequent lightning as the convection crosses the Entrance to the Gulf of California during the next several hours before it dissipates. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through early next week. Overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be fresh early this morning, then again tonight through Sunday morning, as high pressure builds N of the area in the wake of a tropical wave. Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of southern Mexico Sunday morning through Monday with seas building to 7 to 9 ft, then gradually decaying through Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several nights/mornings. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N of the monsoon trough through Tuesday. A new and more robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator this morning, bringing seas to 9 ft along the Central American coast this evening through Monday, decaying thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1012 mb low pressure centered near 12N98W is forecast to slowly drift W through the weekend, possibly merging with the tropical wave just to the W. Some slow development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh flow converging into the monsoon trough from the SSW fueling scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. No major changes in this weather pattern are anticipated through early next week. $$ CAM