000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of former Tropical Storm Franklin consolidated with a center of low pressure that was over Acapulco adjacent waters earlier this morning. The new area of broad surface low pressure is centered near 18.6N 107.5W at 1200 UTC. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are between the low and the SW coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to near Acapulco. The convection associated with the system continue to become better organized, and a tropical depression could be forming today or tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 20N between 107W and 110W, and from 13N to 16N between 104W and 110W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 12N to 21N between 102W and 114W. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours before it moves over cooler waters on Sunday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 08N with axis along 96W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed N of 05N between 92W and 100W. This tropical wave will likely merge with the developing low pressure to the NW over the weekend. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to low pressure 1012 mb near 10N93W, then resumes from 13N107W to 13N120W to 11N130W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 12N W of 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gentle to moderate breeze will prevail off the northern and central Baja California Peninsula through mid next week. Wind and seas associated with a possible tropical cyclone will impact the offshore waters of the southern Baja California Peninsula Saturday through early Sunday. Please see the Special Features section for information on developing low pressure near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Saturday morning as a weak center of high pressure drift to the Gulf of Mexico central waters before dissipating later that day. Long period southerly swell will propagate into the coast of southern Mexico from Sunday morning through Monday morning with seas building to 8 ft. Otherwise, an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave will move S of Guerrero and Oaxaca, Mexico offshore waters Tue night through Wed morning supporting moderate E-SE winds with seas up to 11 ft in mixed swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds N of the monsoon trough anticipated through Sunday. A new and more robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator by early Saturday, bringing seas to 9 ft along the Central American coast Saturday through Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 10N93W forecast to move NW to near 11N97W by Saturday morning possibly merging with the tropical wave W of it. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the monsoon trough, with moderate flow converging into the monsoon trough from the S-SW, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. No major changes are anticipated through the weekend. $$ NR