000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 UTC Fri Aug 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Animated IR satellite imagery indicates the remnants of Atlantic tropical cyclone Franklin are moving off the Mexican coast between Acapulco and Manzanillo. Surface troughing and an area of low pressure has developed over and just SE of Cabo Corrientes. A large area of associated convection is spreading southwestward from Cabo Corrientes. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection covers an area between 14N and 22N between 105W and 110W. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany the low pressure as it consolidates and moves WNW to pass just N of the Revillagigedo Islands on Saturday. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours before it moves over cooler waters on Sunday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A well-defined tropical wave is N of 10N along 93W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed N of 05N between 91W and 97W. This tropical wave will likely merge with developing low pressure to the NW during the next couple of days. A poorly defined tropical wave is N of 09N along 97W moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 14N between 97W and 103W. This tropical wave will lose definition during the next day or so as it interacts with developing systems to the E and W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N77W to low pressure 1013 MB near 10N93W, then resumes from 15N108W to 13N114W to 13N120W to low pressure 1013 mb near 12N127W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 10N between 83W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 110W and 121W and from 07N to 13N W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on developing low pressure near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Otherwise, overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to moderate to fresh by tonight in the immediate wake of two tropical waves passing through the region, increasing to a fresh to strong pulse by Saturday night as high pressure builds N of the region in the wake of the second tropical wave. Long period southerly swell will propagate into the coast of southern Mexico by early Monday with seas building to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough anticipated through Sunday. A new and more robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator by late Friday, bringing seas to 9 ft along the Central American coast Sunday. Seas will gradually decay early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 12N126W with scattered moderate convection seen from 08N to 13N between 125W and 129W. This low will linger in the same general area through the end of the week. Otherwise, a weak and broad ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the monsoon trough, with moderate flow converging into the monsoon trough from the S-SW, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. No major changes are anticipated through the weekend. $$ CAM