000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0231 UTC Fri Aug 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Atlantic tropical cyclone Franklin are moving across Mexico near 19.5N101W with associated convection spreading westward. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 21N within 180 nm of the coast of the Mexico between 102W and 107W. The remnant energy of this low may help to form a new low in the Pacific near Cabo Corrientes on Friday. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany the low pressure as it moves W-NW to the N of the Revillagigedo Islands through Sunday. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A poorly defined tropical wave is N of 06N along 89W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 05N between 83W and 88W. This tropical wave will lose definition into Friday as a near by upper low weakens. A well-defined tropical wave is N of 07N along 96W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 300 nm W of the axis. This tropical wave will likely merge with developing low pressure to the NW during the next couple of days. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N75W to 09N89W to 13N100W, then resumes from low pressure near 16N106W to low pressure near 11N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm NW of the axis between 107W and 114W, from 07N to 10N between 130W and 133W, and from 09N to 13N W of 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on possible developing low pressure near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Otherwise, overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to moderate to fresh by Friday night in the immediate wake of the tropical wave passing through the region, increasing to a fresh to strong pulse by Saturday night as high pressure builds N of the region in the wake of the tropical wave. Long period southerly swell will propagate into the coast of southern Mexico by early Monday with seas to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough through Saturday. A new and extensive set of cross-equatorial swell is forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator by late Friday, bringing seas to 9 ft to the Central American coast Sunday, gradually decaying early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1010 mb low pressure area is near 16N106W with associated convection difficult to determine due to a large complex of thunderstorms moving offshore of central Mexico. This low is forecast to dissipate overnight. Another weak 1012 mb low pressure is near 11N126W with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 150 nm in the SE semicircle. This low will linger in the same general area through the end of the week. Otherwise, a weak and broad ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the monsoon trough, with moderate flow converging into the monsoon trough from the S-SW, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. No major changes are anticipated through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky