000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2125 UTC Thu Aug 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A poorly defined tropical wave is N of 06N along 88W from central Honduras southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 80W and 86W, and also from 10N to 12N W of the axis to 90W. This tropical wave will lose definition into Friday as a near by upper low weakens. A well-defined tropical wave is N of 08N along 95W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 420 nm W of the axis. Global models indicate low pressure will form over the next couple of days at the intersection of the tropical wave and monsoon trough in the vicinity of 11N97W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 15N104W to 12N114W to low pressure near 10N126W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 75 nm either side of the axis W of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Atlantic tropical cyclone Franklin are moving across Mexico near 20N100W with associated convection spreading westward. A weak remnant is expected to emerge into the Pacific off Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong winds, building seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure as it moves W-NW to the N of the Revillagigedo Islands through Sunday. Farther N, an upper trough is drifting NW high above Baja California Sur. Associated divergence aloft was responsible for clusters of showers and thunderstorms that moved off the eastern coast of the Gulf of California last night, then dissipated over the Gulf through this morning. Overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to moderate to fresh by Friday night in the immediate wake of the tropical wave passing through the region, increasing to a fresh to strong pulse by Saturday night as high pressure builds N of the region in the wake of the tropical wave. Long period southerly swell will propagate into the coast of southern Mexico by early Monday with seas to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough through Saturday. A new and extensive set of cross-equatorial swell is forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator by late Friday, bringing seas to 9 ft to the Central American coast Sunday, gradually decaying early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure at 1010 mb is near 15N107W with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 300 nm in the W quadrant of the low. This low will dissipate overnight. Another low pressure area at 1012 mb is near 10N126W with scattered moderate convection within 360 nm in the SW quadrant of the low. This low will linger in the same general area through the end of the week. Otherwise, a weak and broad ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the monsoon trough, with moderate flow converging into the monsoon trough from the S-SW, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. No major changes are anticipated through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky