000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0223 UTC Wed Aug 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 110W moving W around 10 kt. Associated convection has diminished. The tropical wave will likely become less defined as it continues to the W over the next couple of days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 12N88W, then resumes from 13N100W to 10N117W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 10N117W to 11N130W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 80W and 86W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 06N and E of 80W, from 04N to 09N between 86W and 93W, and also from 09N to 11N between 107W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 12N and E of 90W and from 11N to 13N between 103W and 107W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow will prevail, except northerly over the southern portion and near the entrance. Seas will be 2 ft or less, except up to 4 ft near the entrance. Gentle onshore winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail across the offshore waters E of Jalisco to Guatemala through Saturday. Southerly swells will builds seas to 6 to 9 ft thereafter. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW-N flow will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California into early Friday, along with seas of mainly 4 to 6 ft. An area of low pressure or a trough may form a couple of hundred of miles offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week, shifting NW through the upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains with regard to the strength and impacts of any associated marine conditions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds are expected to the S of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas will mainly range from 4 to 6 ft. A set of long-period southerly swell at the coastal areas of Costa Rica and Panama, could be producing occasional waves of 7 to 8 ft or higher in the shallow waters at the coast. The swell energy will begin to decay Wednesday. A new and larger set of southerly swell will arrive by the end of the upcoming weekend, potentially building seas to 7 to 10 ft across the offshore waters, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1011 mb low pressure is near 12N139W and will move W of the area by Wednesday morning before dissipating.. Otherwise, a weak and broad ridge extends from 30N140W to the SE near 16N114W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail N of the convergence zone, with moderate to fresh southerly winds S of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 5 ft N of the convergence zone, and 5 to 7 ft S of the convergence zone. Little overall change in these marine conditions is expected into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky