000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2145 UTC Tue Aug 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 109W/110W moving W around 10 kt. Associated convection has diminished. The tropical wave will likely become less defined as it continues to the W over the next couple of days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 10N80W to 11N87W, then resumes from 13N96W to 10N117W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 10N117W to 08N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 09N between 78W and 87W, from 06N to 09N between 88W and 93W, from 11N to 14N between 96W and 107W, and from 07N to 10N between 104W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 117W and 122W, and also from 06N to 09N between 126W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough which is the remnants of TD Eleven-E is moving across the Revillagigedo Islands with scattered showers in the vicinity. This trough will continue to move W-NW while dissipating through the middle of the week. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow will prevail, except northerly over the southern portion and near the entrance. Seas will be 2 ft or less, except up to 4 ft near the entrance. Gentle onshore winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail across the offshore waters E of Jalisco to Guatemala through Saturday. Southerly swells will builds seas to 6 to 9 ft thereafter. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW-N flow will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California into early Friday, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. An area of low pressure or a trough may form a couple of hundred of miles offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week, shifting NW through the upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains with regard to the strength and impacts of any associated marine conditions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds are expected to the S of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas will mainly range from 4 to 6 ft. A set of long-period southerly swell has arrived to the coastal areas of Costa Rica and Panama, and could be producing occasional waves of 7 to 8 ft or higher in the shallow waters at the coast. Wave model guidance indicates that the swell energy will begin to dissipate by Wednesday. A new and larger set of southerly swell will arrive by the end of the upcoming weekend, potentially building seas to 7 to 10 ft across the offshore waters, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Very weak 1015 mb low pressure is near 13N139W and will move W of the area by Wednesday morning. Otherwise, a weak and broad ridge extends from 32N140W to the SE near 17N117W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail N of the convergence zone, with moderate to fresh southerly winds S of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 5 ft N of the convergence zone, and 5 to 7 ft S of the convergence zone. Little overall change in these marine conditions is expected into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky