000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave previously located along 100W is relocated along 96W, from 07N to 15N based on satellite imagery, the TPW animation, and 700 mb streamlines. The wave is now embedded within an area of deep layered moisture. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is along the wave axis from 11N to 13N between 95W and 97W. Convection also increases where the wave meets the monsoon trough, described in greater detail below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N92W TO 08N105W TO 10N114W... AND FROM 16N115W TO 12N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 89W... WITHIN 210 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...WITHIN 270 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The center of the remnant 1010 mb low pressure center of T.D. ELEVEN-E is near 20N112W. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of 20-25 kt winds within about 90 nm NE semicircle of the low center, with seas to 8 ft. A well defined swirl of low clouds is evident still in satellite imagery. The remnant low is forecast to continue on a north-northwest or northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed until dissipation occurs later today on Sunday. A surface trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula. The trough will overtake and absorb the remaining cyclonic wind flow that will remain from the current 1010 mb remnant low pressure center. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of northern and central Baja California. Expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas generally of 4-5 ft W of Baja California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are forecast from sunrise until the early afternoon hours of today, with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. The same scenario is expected to repeat itself from sunrise of Monday into early Monday afternoon. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. This brings the potential for large breaking waves as it reaches shallow waters along the coast of Mexico on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail offshore the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday with seas of 6-7 ft in southerly swell. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds to the N of the monsoon trough and seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands early Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event, with the potential for large breaking waves as it reaches shallow waters along the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as the remnant low of Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW and dissipates later in the day today. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly from 125W westward. $$ MT