000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E has weakened to a remnant low and the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system at 05/2100 UTC. At this time, the post-tropical cyclone is near 20.3N 111.7W moving NNW or 335 degrees 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds have diminished to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. This system has lost its deep convection, and currently only a swirl of mainly low clouds is noted on visible satellite imagery. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night. A recent scatterometer data provide observations of 20-25 kt winds within 90 nm NE semicircle of the low center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W, from 08N to 16N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring where the wave meets the monsoon trough, described in greater detail below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N90W to 08N100W to 09N111W, then resumes at 13N117W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 12N131W to 09N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 13N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 91W and 95W, and from 07N to 10N between 97W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 120W and 130W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The last advisory on Tropical Depression Eleven-E was issued at 05/2100 UTC. Please read the Special Features section for details. A surface trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of northern and central Baja California. Expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas generally of 4-5 ft W of Baja California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are forecast to return again tonight and early Sunday with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. This brings the potential for large breaking waves as it reaches shallow waters along the coast of Mexico on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: Early morning moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Papagayo become gentle to moderate by the afternoon. Seas will be building to 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds to the N of the monsoon trough and seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands early Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event with the potential for large breaking waves as it reaches shallow waters along the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as the remnant low of Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, and well away from Los Cabos region during the next few days. Moderate to fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly from 120W westward. $$ GR