000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051510 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1510 UTC Sat Aug 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is near 19.6N 111.3W at 05/1500 UTC, or about 50 NM to the NNW of Socorro Island of Mexico. T.D. Eleven-E is moving NW or 325 degrees 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds remain 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection was confined to within 180 NM of the center in the W semicircle due to persistent northeasterly shear. T.D. Eleven-E should degenerate into a Post- Tropical Remnant low pressure later this afternoon as the system moves slowly away from the Revillagigedo Islands. Minor marine impacts are expected over marine zone PMZ015 through Sunday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W/99W, from 15N southward, to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 08N98W. The low pressure center is embedded within the monsoon trough. This wave will continue to move westward and away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec area today. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection was occurring around the monsoon trough, described in greater detail below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center near 08N98W, and continues to 09N107W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N112W to 13N125W to another 1010 mb low pressure near 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted from 10N to 13N between 90W and 93W and within 90 to 120 NM either side of the monsoon trough between 98W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 NM either side of the trough axis between 115W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section, for information pertaining to Tropical Depression Eleven-E. A surface trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of northern and central Baja California. Expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas generally of 4-5 ft W of Baja California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are forecast to return again tonight and early Sunday with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. This brings the potential for large breaking waves along the coast of Mexico on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: Early morning moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Papagayo become gentle to moderate by the afternoon. Seas will be building to 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds to the N of the monsoon trough and seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands early Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event with the potential for large breaking waves along the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as the remnant low of Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, and well away from Los Cabos region during the next few days. Moderate to fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly from 120W westward. $$ COBB