000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E at 05/0900 UTC is near 19.2N 111.4W at 05/0900 UTC, or about 32 nm to the NW of Socorro Island of Mexico. T.D. Eleven-E is moving NW or 315 degrees 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. The tropical depression remains strongly sheared from the northeast, and latest visible satellite imagery shows that the center is totally exposed. Little change in intensity is expected on Saturday with the system forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. The depression is nearing the Revillagigedo Islands and it is forecast to move across forecast zone PMZ015, and well away from Los Cabos during the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more information. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W/97W, from 14N southward, to a 1011 mb low pressure center. The low pressure center is within the monsoon trough. This wave will continue to move westward and away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec area on Saturday. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong around the monsoon trough, as described in the paragraph with information about the ITCZ and the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through 09N84W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 08N96W, and continuing to 08N104W and 10N110W, and from 15N114W to 11N125W 11N130W, and to 10N137W. The ITCZ continues from 10N137W beyond 10N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 12N to 14N between 88W and 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 NM to the south of the monsoon trough between 81W and 85W...within 120 NM to the north of the monsoon trough between 91W and 106W...and within 90 NM on either side of the monsoon trough between 104W and 106W. Scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 12N between 121W and 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section, for information that pertains to Tropical Depression Eleven-E. A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters that are to the W of northern and central Baja California. Expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas generally of 4-5 ft W of Baja California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected late tonight into early Saturday morning with the assistance of the drainage flow. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds are expected tonight into Saturday morning with seas building to 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds to the N of the monsoon trough and seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, and well away from Los Cabos region during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly from 120W westward. $$ mt