000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... T.D. Eleven-E is centered near 18.6N 111.0W at 05/0300 UTC or about 275 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. The tropical depression remains strongly sheared from the northeast, and latest visible satellite imagery shows that the center is totally exposed. Little change in intensity is expected on Saturday with the system forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. The depression is nearing the Revillagigedo Islands and it is forecast to move across forecast zone PMZ015, and well away from Los Cabos during the upcoming weekend. For additional information please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W/96W S of 14N to a 1012 mb low pres within the monsoon trough located near 08N95W. This wave will continue to move westward and away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec area tonight into Saturday. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 94W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to weak low pressure 1012 mb near 08N95W to 09N104W, then resumes from 13N112W to 11N130W to 10N139W. The ITCZ continues from 10N139W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found N of 06N E of 82W, from 08N to 10N between 120W and 123W, and from 08N to 10N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section, for information concerning about Tropical Depression Eleven-E. A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula while a ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of northern and central Baja California. Under the influence of this weather pattern, expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas generally of 4-5 ft W of Baja California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected late tonight into early Saturday morning with the assistance of the drainage flow. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds are expected tonight into Saturday morning with seas building to 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, and well away from Los Cabos region through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly west of 120W. $$ GR