000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2006 UTC Fri Aug 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... T.D. Eleven-E is centered near 18.0N 110.2W at 04/2100 UTC or about 290 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. Little change in intensity is expected through the weekend with the system expected to dissipate early next week. Only minor marine impacts are expected over the offshore waters well away from the States of Colima and Jalisco tonight and Sat. For additional information please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W/95W S of 14N to a 1012 mb low pres along the monsoon trough near 07N94W. This wave will continue to move westward and away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec area tonight into Saturday. Any convection was confined to the wave axis S of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W, to weak low pressure 1012 mb near 07N94W to 08N102W, then resumes from 13N111W to 10N130W to 09N136W. The ITCZ continues from 09N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 04N E of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 91W and 96W, and from 07N to 10N W of 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section, for information concerning newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E. A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate NW winds through the weekend, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in mixed long period NW and cross-equatorial southerly swell. Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California, except for moderate southerly flow expected to the N of 30N tonight and again on Saturday night. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected late tonight into early Saturday morning with the assistance of the drainage flow. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 18 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds are expected tonight into Saturday morning with seas building to 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 18 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly west of 120W. $$ GR