000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1409 UTC Fri Aug 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The area of 1010 mb low pressure associated with the tropical wave along 107W/108W earlier has become somewhat better organized and is now designated as Tropical Depression Eleven-E. At 04/1500 UTC the center of T.D. Eleven-E was near 17.7N 109.1W or about 290 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 180 NM in the SW semicircle of the system. Little change in intensity is expected through the weekend with the system expected to dissipate early next week. Only minor marine impacts are expected over the offshore waters well away from the States of Michoacan and Colima tonight and Sat. For additional information please refer to forecast advisories issued under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave will continue to move westward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec area today. Any convection was confined to the wave axis S of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica near 09N85W, to weak low pressure 1011 mb near 07N93W to 07N100W, then resumes from 13N111W to 10N130W to 09N140W. Numerous strong convection was noted off the coast of Colombia between 76W and 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 NM S of the monsoon trough between 125W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 NM N of the monsoon trough between 88W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section, for information concerning newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E. A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate NW winds through the weekend, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in mixed long period NW and cross-equatorial southerly swell. Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California, except for moderate southerly flow expected to the N of 30N on Friday night and again on Saturday night. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected late Friday night into early Saturday morning with the assistance of the drainage flow. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 18 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds are expected tonight into Friday morning with seas building to 6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 18 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore waters with this swell event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly west of 120W. $$ Cobb