000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 03 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 08N along 89W and is progressing W at an estimated 15 kt. This wave will continue W across Central America reaching the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the upcoming weekend. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently enhanced over coastal El Salvador and Guatemala, and TSTM clusters are likely to continue to develop especially over land near this wave. A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 07N along 102W with several cyclonic swirls noted along the wave axis. Currently scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the wave axis. Scatterometer winds indicate fresh to locally strong E-SE winds to the N of 14N within 240 nm E of the wave axis. A surface low is likely to redevelop along this wave near 16N112W in about 36 hours, and move NW to near 19N112W on Sat night, then dissipate on Sun. A tropical wave extends from 08N113W to 20N113W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to 12N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W to across the Panama and Costa Rica border to 11N86W, then turns NW through the tropical wave at 13N102W, then turns SW to 08N132W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ that extends SW to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 09N105W to 08N116W, and within 120 nm either side of a line from 08N124W to 08N140W. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along the ITCZ near 09.5N135W tonight and move W of 140W on Fri night. Expect locally strong e winds within about 90 nm E of the low. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula while a NW to SE orientated ridge extends across the area from 23N116W to 20N108W. A gentle to locally moderate NW breeze is expected through the weekend W of the Baja California Peninsula, with combined seas of 4-6 ft primarily in mixed long period NW and cross-equatorial southerly swell. Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California except moderate southerly flow expected to the N of 30N on Sun. See tropical wave section above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh northerly drainage winds expected late tonight with guidance hinting a very brief strong surge on Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to locally fresh offshore winds expected through sunrise on Fri. Moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis through the upcoming weekend with 3 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Irwin is located near 28N132W and is expected to soon weaken to an open trough. A ridge will rebuild from 30N140W to 20N110W tonight. Long period southerly swell, in the form of 6-8 ft seas observed within 150 nm either side of a line from 05N128W to 10N103W should subside to less than 8 ft today. $$ Nelson