000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is approaching the NE Pacific basin extending across the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America. Most of the convection associated with the wave is lagging behind the wave axis and will move across the remainder of Central America on Thursday, reaching the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday. A tropical wave extends along 98W N of 06N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 96W and 101W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly from 13N to 15.5N between 96W and 99W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The wave is forecast to reach 103w/104W on Thursday with fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft covering the waters from 15N to 17N between 100W and 104W. Then, the wave will reach 109W on Friday with winds of 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft. Another tropical wave extends 110W/111W from 07N to 19N. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is near the northern end of the wave axis from 17N to 20N between 107W and 110W. This wave was relocated on the 1800 UTC analysis/surface map. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 11N90W to 13N98W to 11N110W to 09N120W to 09N130W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 11N to 16N between 101W and 107W, from 07N to 10N between 120W and 130W, and from 05N to 10N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula while a NW to SE oriented ridge extends just W of the offshore waters. A gentle to locally moderate NW breeze is expected through the weekend W of the Baja California Peninsula, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in long period S swell. Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California. A tropical wave will move across the offshore forecast waters between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the offshore waters of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through late Thursday producing fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-9 ft. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected late Friday night into early Saturday morning with the assistance of the drainage flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds are expected tonight and again on Thursday night with seas building to 6 ft. Otherwise, moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis and gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough. Long period southerly swell will continue to decay with seas around 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft by the end of the week. Seas will build late in the weekend as a new pulse of southerly swell arrives. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Irwin is located near 28N131.5W and is expected to weaken to an open trough in about 24 hours. A swirl of low clouds remains associated with this low. As the remnant low of Irwin dissipates, expect a ridge to finally build across the northern forecast waters, after an active period of tropical cyclone activity. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also expected around the southern periphery of the ridge and north of the convergence zone, mainly west of 120W. Long period southerly swell, in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas, is observed across the waters S of the monsoon trough. These seas will gradually subside through the end of the week. $$ GR