000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 02 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 07N along 82W and is progressing W at an estimated 18 kt. This wave will continue W across Central America reaching the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the upcoming weekend. TSTM clusters are likely over land near this wave. A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 07N along 97W with several cyclonic swirls noted along the wave axis with the most significant swirl analyzed as a 1010 mb low at 12N97W. Currently scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along a disorganized band W of the low within 60 nm either side of a line from 09N101W to 12N94W. Scatterometer winds indicate strong E-SE winds out 240 nm over the NE quadrant. This low is forecast to move to near 13N101W late this afternoon and near 15N106W late Thu. Environmental conditions will be favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, then less favorable thereafter. A tropical wave extends from 07N105W to 16N105W and has been W at 12 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted to the N of 11N within 120 nm E of the wave. A tropical wave extends from 07N115W to 16N115W and has been moving W at about 8 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong S of 10N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends WNW from the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W across Panama and Costa Rica 11N86W through an embedded surface low at 12N97W, then turns WSW to 09N125W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ that extends SW to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N100W to 09N107W to 10N112W to 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula while a NW to SE orientated ridge extends just W of the offshore waters. A gentle to locally moderate NW breeze is expected through the weekend W of the Baja California Peninsula, with combined seas of 5-7 ft primarily in long period southerly swell. Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California. A surface low near 12N97W is forecast to move NW at 12 kt with fresh to locally strong E-SE winds, and 7-9 ft seas, extending out as far as 240 nm NE of the low, and across the offshore waters through Thu. Thereafter, associated winds should diminish to a moderate to locally fresh breeze as the low passes S of Cabo San Lucas on Fri and Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh northerly drainage winds expected late Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds expected tonight with seas building to 5 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 to 5 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Irwin is located near 28N131W and is expected to weaken to an open trough in about 24 hours. A ridge will rebuild from 31N140W to 21N111W on Fri. Long period southerly swell, in the form of 6-8 ft seas, is observed from 03N to 09N between 100W and 120W. The seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft later today. $$ Nelson