000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 96W from 07N to 15N. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 10N96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 96W and 98.5W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 14N between 95W and 98W. Fresh to strong winds and seas in the 8-9 ft range are observed within 180 nm NE semicircle of low center. An earlier scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Environmental conditions should continue to be supportive of some gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves WNW at 10-15 kt. Conditions appear to become less favorable for development by the end of this week. A second tropical wave extends from 16N102W to 07N103W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is between 98W and the wave axis. Another tropical wave extends from 15N114W to 08N115W moving slowly W. Convection is limited at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to low pressure near 10N96W to 10N110W to 08N130W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 08N130W to 07N140W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 103W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 118W and 132W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ axis west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A narrow ridge is noted between the Baja California Peninsula and to the E of the remnant low of Irwin. The pressure gradient is weakening under the influence of the ridge allowing for gentle to moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Generally light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere over the offshore waters of Mexico, as well as in the Gulf of California. Long period southerly swells of 5 to 7 ft will gradually subside through the end of the week. The area of low pressure located near 10N96W is forecast to move WNW at 10-15 kt and then more NW by the end of the week. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected on the NE side of the low center. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The low pressure located near 10N96W along a tropical will move away of the area by tonight. As a result, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the offshore forecast zone PMZ111 tonight into Wednesday. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected offshore the Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Fri. Otherwise, long period southerly swells of 5 to 8 ft will gradually subside through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Irwin is located near 27N130W with a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Irwin consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. A trough is analyzed from Irwin to 30N135W. The remnant low of Hilary opened up into this trough, forecast to persist tonight into Wednesday. Another ridge dominates the far NW corner of the forecast area. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail between the convergence zone and 18N west of 120W. Long period southerly swell will continue to propagate northward across the forecast waters with seas of 6-8 ft across the area S of 12N W of 92W by tonight, and S of 15N W of 125W by Wednesday night. $$ GR