000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2201 UTC Sun Jul 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hilary is centered near 25.0N 127.2W at 30/2100 UTC or about 930 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm N quadrant. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details. Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 18.5N 125.6W at 30/2100 UTC or about 925 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N83W to 09N84W then continues farther north through Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection over the water. A tropical wave extends from 07N92W to 14N92W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 90W and 95W. A tropical wave extends from 08N106W to 18N106W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 13N to 18N between 105W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N90W to 11N116W then resumes from 14N128W to 10N140W. No significant intertropical convergence zone is noted W of 140W. Other than convection already described in the tropical wave section, no significant convection is observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest winds off the coast of Baja California will start to increase from gentle to moderate to moderate to fresh through Mon as ridging starts to build into the area in the wake of the tropical cyclones west of the area. The slight increase in winds will along with a group of long period southerly swell propagating into the area will be enough to allow seas to 8 ft off Baja California Sur on Monday. The ridge weakens allowing winds to diminish as the swell starts to decay Monday night, allowing seas to subside below 8 ft. Generally light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere in the Gulf of California and the offshore Mexican waters south of 20N through mid week. Lingering southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft will persist. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow along with persistent southerly swell will build seas to 7 to 9 ft across the waters S of 10N, and off the Guatemala coast by late Tuesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high is located well N of the area near 41N133W with a ridge axis extending to parallel the coast of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and the active zone of tropical cyclones will maintain moderate N to NE winds W of 127W through tonight. Long period cross equatorial SW swell of 8 to 9 ft is spreading across the waters S of 10N and E of 110W, and will persist through midweek. As the tropical cyclone activity shifts to the NW and continues to weaken, a weak pressure pattern will develop between the remnant cyclones and the equatorial trough to the south. This will result in a broadening area of gentle to moderate winds between 10N and 20N, W of 110W early next week. $$ Christensen