000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150244 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fernanda has continued to strengthen this evening, and has a small and well defined eye centered near 10.7N 120.2W at 0300 UTC, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is now 948 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm across the west semicircle and 45 nm across the east semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring elsewhere within 180 nm NE and 150 nm SW semicircles. Fernanda remains a Category 4 major hurricane, and is forecast to continue on a west to west-northwestward motion as a major hurricane for the next 3 to 4 days. This trajectory will take Fernanda through the trade wind belt of the eastern tropical Pacific with strong easterly swell spreading out ahead of it. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 08N along 97W-98W, moving W near 15 kt. The wave is enhancing numerous clusters of convection across the Mexican near and offshore waters from Acapulco to Guatemala and will shift westward with the wave during the next 24 hours. A tropical wave along 108W-109W is moving W at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has increased modestly during the past 6 hours and is mainly occurring ahead of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N74W TO 08N79W TO 10N97W TO 10.5N113W, where it breaks from Fernanda, then resumes from 10N124W TO 09.5N132W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 80W and 91W, from 07N to 16N between 93W and 103W, and from 06.5N to 12N between 104W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail offshore of Baja California through the weekend. The remnant circulation of Eugene continues to dissipate well west of the area, near 28N128.5W. Seas across these waters will remain 4 to 6 ft through early next week. Winds are expected to become light and variable again by early next week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters. Mainly light and variable winds and 1-3 ft seas will prevail in the Gulf of California, except 3 to 4 ft seas south of 23N. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are filling in across the region behind a passing tropical wave now just west of the Gulf. These winds will veer more southeasterly tonight along the Oaxaca coast. Weaker northerly gap winds will pulse each night afterwards. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate offshore winds will pulse to fresh each night through Saturday morning, then weaken afterwards. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and 6-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing pulse of swell moving into the area tonight reaching the Central America coast Saturday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information on Hurricane Fernanda. The post-tropical remnant low of Eugene near 28N128.5W is drifting NW and weakening, with no discernible convection. Afternoon ASCAT data showed winds are less than 25 kt, and have likely since diminished to around 20 kt. Seas are estimated 6-7 ft. Winds and seas will continue to diminish over the next 48 hours as the low pressure gradually dissipates. Swell generated by Fernanda will propagate away from the center across tropical waters west of 120W the next several days. It is expected to cross 140W and move into the Central Pacific by early next week. Elsewhere outside of the region within 300 nm of the path of Fernanda, winds will remain generally light to moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Stripling