000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 10.9N 118.9W at 1500 UTC, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of the northwest semicircle, and 135 nm in the southeast semicircle. Fernanda is now a Category 3 major hurricane, and is forecast to continue westward as a major hurricane for the next 3 to 4 days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 08N along 97W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing clusters of convection within 60 nm of the Mexican coast between 93W and 102W. A tropical wave along 107W is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Convection associated with this wave has weakened overnight. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N93W to 10N112W, then resumes from 10N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 06N and east of 85W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail offshore of Baja California through the weekend. The remnant circulation of Eugene continues to dissipate well west of the area, and swells generated by the low will continue to subside. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through early next week. Winds are expected to become light and variable again by early next week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters. Mainly light and variable winds and 1-3 ft seas will prevail in the Gulf of California, except 3 to 4 ft seas south of 23N. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a passing tropical wave is creating a tighter gradient to support fresh nocturnal gap winds into the Gulf this morning and tonight. The winds tonight will veer more easterly along the Oaxaca coast from elongated lower pressure in the monsoon trough farther south. Weaker gap winds will pulse each night afterwards. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate offshore nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh through Saturday morning, then weaker afterwards. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and 6-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing pulse of swell moving into the area tonight reaching the Central America coast Saturday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information on Hurricane Fernanda. The post-tropical remnant low of Eugene near 27N127W is drifting NW and weakening, with no discernible convection. Latest ASCAT data indicates winds are less than 25 kt, and estimated 7-8 ft seas. Winds and seas will continue to diminish over the next 48 hours as the low pressure gradually dissipates. Swell generated by Fernanda will propagate away from the center across tropical waters west of 120W the next several days. It is expected to cross 140W and move into the Central Pacific by mid week. Elsewhere outside of the region within 300 nm of the path of Fernanda, winds will remain generally light to moderate with 5 to 6 ft seas. $$ Mundell